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The SCEC CyberShake platform implements a repeatable scientific workflow to perform 3D physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Earlier this year we calculated CyberShake Study 24.8 for the San Francisco Bay Area. Study 24.8 includes both low-frequency and broadband PSHA models, calculated at 315 sites. This study required building a regional velocity model from existing 3D models, with a near-surface low-velocity taper and a minimum Vs of 400 m/s. Pegasus-WMS managed the execution of Study 24.8 for 45 days on the OLCF Frontier and TACC Frontera systems. 127 million seismograms and 34 billion intensity measures were produced and automatically transferred to SCEC storage. Study 24.8 used a HIP language implementation of the AWP-ODC wave propagation code on AMD-GPU Frontier nodes to produce strain Green tensors, which were convolved with event realizations to synthesize seismograms. Seismograms were processed to derive data products such as intensity measures, site-specific hazard curves and regional hazard maps. CyberShake combines 3D low-frequency deterministic (≤1 Hz) simulations with high-frequency calculations using stochastic modules from the Broadband Platform to produce results up to 25 Hz, with validation performed using historical events. New CyberShake data products from this study include vertical seismograms, vertical response spectra, and period-dependent significant durations. The presented results include comparisons of hazard estimates between Study 24.8, the previous CyberShake study for this region (18.8), and the NGA-West2 ground motion models (GMMs). We find that Study 24.8 shows overall lower hazard than 18.8, likely due to changes in rupture coherency, with the exception of a few regions: 24.8 shows higher hazard than both the GMMs and 18.8 at long periods in the Livermore area, due to deepening of the Livermore basin in the velocity model, as well as higher hazard east of San Pablo Bay and south of San Jose. At high frequencies, Study 24.8 hazard is lower than that of the GMMs, reflecting reduced variability in the stochastic components. We are also using CyberShake ground motion data to investigate the effects of preferred rupture directions on site-specific hazard. By default, PSHA hazard products assume all events on a given fault and magnitude are equally likely, but by varying these probabilities we can examine the effects of preferred rupture directions on given faults on CyberShake hazard estimates.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available September 10, 2026
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The ShakeOut simulations of a M7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (2008) studies predicted unexpectedly large ground motions throughout Southern California due to waveguide e#ects from interconnected sedimentary basins in 3D velocity model. Here, we re-examine the ground motion predictions from the ShakeOut scenario using the most recent updates on the velocity models and the realistic surface topography from the Digital Elevation Model. The exceptional scalability and performance of the AWP-ODC due to the most recent advancements allows for examination of plenty earth models including the irregular surface topography at low computational cost.more » « less
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Abstract We present the discovery of DELVE 6, an ultra-faint stellar system identified in the second data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey. Based on a maximum-likelihood fit to its structure and stellar population, we find that DELVE 6 is an old ( τ > 9.8 Gyr at 95% confidence) and metal-poor ([Fe/H] < −1.17 dex at 95% confidence) stellar system with an absolute magnitude of M V = − 1.5 − 0.6 + 0.4 mag and an azimuthally averaged half-light radius of r 1 / 2 = 10 − 3 + 4 pc. These properties are consistent with the population of ultra-faint star clusters uncovered by recent surveys. Interestingly, DELVE 6 is located at an angular separation of ∼10° from the center of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), corresponding to a 3D physical separation of ∼20 kpc given the system’s observed distance ( D ⊙ = 80 kpc). This also places the system ∼35 kpc from the center of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), lying within recent constraints on the size of the LMC’s dark matter halo. We tentatively measure the proper motion of DELVE 6 using data from Gaia, which we find supports a potential association between the system and the LMC/SMC. Although future kinematic measurements will be necessary to determine its origins, we highlight that DELVE 6 may represent only the second or third ancient ( τ > 9 Gyr) star cluster associated with the SMC, or one of fewer than two dozen ancient clusters associated with the LMC. Nonetheless, we cannot currently rule out the possibility that the system is a distant Milky Way halo star cluster.more » « less
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Abstract We report the discovery of six ultra-faint Milky Way satellites identified through matched-filter searches conducted using Dark Energy Camera (DECam) data processed as part of the second data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey. Leveraging deep Gemini/GMOS-N imaging (for four candidates) as well as follow-up DECam imaging (for two candidates), we characterize the morphologies and stellar populations of these systems. We find that these candidates all share faint absolute magnitudes ( M V ≥ −3.2 mag) and old, metal-poor stellar populations ( τ > 10 Gyr, [Fe/H] < −1.4 dex). Three of these systems are more extended ( r 1/2 > 15 pc), while the other three are compact ( r 1/2 < 10 pc). From these properties, we infer that the former three systems (Boötes V, Leo Minor I, and Virgo II) are consistent with ultra-faint dwarf galaxy classifications, whereas the latter three (DELVE 3, DELVE 4, and DELVE 5) are likely ultra-faint star clusters. Using data from the Gaia satellite, we confidently measure the proper motion of Boötes V, Leo Minor I, and DELVE 4, and tentatively detect a proper-motion signal from DELVE 3 and DELVE 5; no signal is detected for Virgo II. We use these measurements to explore possible associations between the newly discovered systems and the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal, the Magellanic Clouds, and the Vast Polar Structure, finding several plausible associations. Our results offer a preview of the numerous ultra-faint stellar systems that will soon be discovered by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and highlight the challenges of classifying the faintest stellar systems.more » « less
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Abstract We investigate the fine-structure [Cii] line at 158μm as a molecular gas tracer by analyzing the relationship between molecular gas mass (Mmol) and [Cii] line luminosity (L[CII]) in 11,125z≃ 6 star-forming, main-sequence galaxies from thesimbasimulations, with line emission modeled by the Simulator of Galaxy Millimeter/Submillimeter Emission. Though most (∼50%–100%) of the gas mass in our simulations is ionized, the bulk (>50%) of the [Cii] emission comes from the molecular phase. We find a sublinear (slope 0.78 ± 0.01) relation, in contrast with the linear relation derived from observational samples of more massive, metal-rich galaxies atz≲ 6. We derive a median [Cii]-to-Mmolconversion factor ofα[CII]≃ 18M⊙/L⊙. This is lower than the average value of ≃30M⊙/L⊙derived from observations, which we attribute to lower gas-phase metallicities in our simulations. Thus, a lower, luminosity-dependent conversion factor must be applied when inferring molecular gas masses from [Cii] observations of low-mass galaxies. For our simulations, [Cii] is a better tracer of the molecular gas than COJ= 1–0, especially at the lowest metallicities, where much of the gas isCO-dark. We find thatL[CII]is more tightly correlated withMmolthan with star formation rate (SFR), and both the and relations arise from the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation. Our findings suggest thatL[CII]is a promising tracer of the molecular gas at the earliest cosmic epochs.more » « less
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ABSTRACT We use the SMASH survey to obtain unprecedented deep photometry reaching down to the oldest main-sequence turn-offs in the colour–magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) and quantitatively derive its star formation history (SFH) using CMD fitting techniques. We identify five distinctive peaks of star formation in the last 3.5 Gyr, at ∼3, ∼2, ∼1.1, ∼0.45 Gyr ago, and one presently. We compare these to the SFH of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), finding unequivocal synchronicity, with both galaxies displaying similar periods of enhanced star formation over the past ∼3.5 Gyr. The parallelism between their SFHs indicates that tidal interactions between the MCs have recurrently played an important role in their evolution for at least the last ∼3.5 Gyr, tidally truncating the SMC and shaping the LMC’s spiral arm. We show, for the first time, an SMC–LMC correlated SFH at recent times in which enhancements of star formation are localized in the northern spiral arm of the LMC, and globally across the SMC. These novel findings should be used to constrain not only the orbital history of the MCs but also how star formation should be treated in simulations.more » « less
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Abstract We report the discovery of Pegasus IV, an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy found in archival data from the Dark Energy Camera processed by the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey. Pegasus IV is a compact, ultra-faint stellar system ( r 1 / 2 = 41 − 6 + 8 pc; M V = −4.25 ± 0.2 mag) located at a heliocentric distance of 90 − 6 + 4 kpc . Based on spectra of seven nonvariable member stars observed with Magellan/IMACS, we confidently resolve Pegasus IV’s velocity dispersion, measuring σ v = 3.3 − 1.1 + 1.7 km s −1 (after excluding three velocity outliers); this implies a mass-to-light ratio of M 1 / 2 / L V , 1 / 2 = 167 − 99 + 224 M ⊙ / L ⊙ for the system. From the five stars with the highest signal-to-noise spectra, we also measure a systemic metallicity of [Fe/H] = − 2.63 − 0.30 + 0.26 dex, making Pegasus IV one of the most metal-poor ultra-faint dwarfs. We tentatively resolve a nonzero metallicity dispersion for the system. These measurements provide strong evidence that Pegasus IV is a dark-matter-dominated dwarf galaxy, rather than a star cluster. We measure Pegasus IV’s proper motion using data from Gaia Early Data Release 3, finding ( μ α * , μ δ ) = (0.33 ± 0.07, −0.21 ± 0.08) mas yr −1 . When combined with our measured systemic velocity, this proper motion suggests that Pegasus IV is on an elliptical, retrograde orbit, and is currently near its orbital apocenter. Lastly, we identify three potential RR Lyrae variable stars within Pegasus IV, including one candidate member located more than 10 half-light radii away from the system’s centroid. The discovery of yet another ultra-faint dwarf galaxy strongly suggests that the census of Milky Way satellites is still incomplete, even within 100 kpc.more » « less
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Abstract We perform a detailed photometric and astrometric analysis of stars in the Jet stream using data from the first data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey DR1 and Gaia EDR3. We discover that the stream extends over ∼ 29° on the sky (increasing the known length by 18°), which is comparable to the kinematically cold Phoenix, ATLAS, and GD-1 streams. Using blue horizontal branch stars, we resolve a distance gradient along the Jet stream of 0.2 kpc deg−1, with distances ranging fromD⊙∼ 27–34 kpc. We use natural splines to simultaneously fit the stream track, width, and intensity to quantitatively characterize density variations in the Jet stream, including a large gap, and identify substructure off the main track of the stream. Furthermore, we report the first measurement of the proper motion of the Jet stream and find that it is well aligned with the stream track, suggesting the stream has likely not been significantly perturbed perpendicular to the line of sight. Finally, we fit the stream with a dynamical model and find that it is on a retrograde orbit, and is well fit by a gravitational potential including the Milky Way and Large Magellanic Cloud. These results indicate the Jet stream is an excellent candidate for future studies with deeper photometry, astrometry, and spectroscopy to study the potential of the Milky Way and probe perturbations from baryonic and dark matter substructure.more » « less
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